The true Spanish veto hints at why May will sideline indyref2
This weekend it has been fun to watch the UK mainstream media as it has finally dawned on them that Spain will not veto an independent Scotland joining the EU.
It has been equally amusing to observe them becoming apoplectic at the thought of Spain using the Brexit talks to take control of Gibraltar.
Both incidents point to why there is no way May will let us have a second independence referendum anytime soon.
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In 2014 the UK was an important part of the EU and most EU countries wanted to keep it that way.
The UK was a net contributor and acted as a good counter balance to the power of Germany. There was no way any EU country would speak out to encourage the break up of a key ally.
Now all has changed and the UK has betrayed the EU project. All of the countries in the EU now smell an opportunity to attract from the UK jobs, wealth and in the case of Spain, territory.
We can see this today with the revelation that the EU intends to pinch 100,000 finance jobs from London.
Manfred Weber, the leader of the centre-right European people’s party – the largest political group in the European parliament spoke of this strategy.
He said:
From now on we will have the interests of the EU27 in mind, not of the British. That’s the outcome when you leave this family. Some of the politicians in London have not understood what leaving the European Union means. It means being alone.
Great Britain after leaving will be a third country. We have to find a way of working together, but we have the obvious interest that places like Amsterdam, Paris, Dublin and Frankfurt can win as they [London] lose.
In leaving the EU the UK has turned a mutually beneficial relationship between partners into a game of poker.
Whereas in 2014 the EU would not interfere in a UK internal matter, now the future relationship between Scotland, the UK and the EU could be one of the chips on the table.
Spain’s new found power over the fate of Gibraltar and their announcement about Scotland are both directly related to the forthcoming Brexit card game.
However, Scotland will probably not get to play.
Scotland will only be on the table if there was to be a referendum planned before the negotiations are finalised. However, May is sure to the reject a referendum as she can’t afford to have Scotland used against her by the Europeans.
An indyref will not only make it harder for May at the negotiating table. An EU becoming more welcoming to Scotland combined with the economic consequences of leaving the EU will push a lot of people towards a Yes vote.
May’s task is hard enough already without agreeing to a referendum that would cause those extra problems.
The key question now is whether or not Nicola Sturgeon will choose to have a referendum regardless.
Let us know what you think in the comments.
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The First Minister is the last person I would ever choose to play poker against regardless f chips on the table especially if I knew that I was holding a busted flush but if I had to choose poker or chess then I would hope the cards would throw up a surprise. Nicola Sturgeon is a master of political chess learned at the feet of Grand Master Salmond then taken to a whole new level . She has promised developments after the Easter recess and I do not see her disappointing. The unionists made the age old fault of opening… Read more »
I don’t care if it’s an unofficial referendum, or if NS takes the legal route or even if she busts out a National Assembly declaration with a vote after indy…it’s imperative we know what the Scots want to do before the UK leaves the EU. I can’t see Nicola sitting on her hands politely waiting for May’s attention somehow. We’ve gone waay past that.
The problem with just holding an unofficial referendum is that a lot of folk will boycott it and then that will enable folk to argue that the results are not valid. Will be interesting to see what happens next though.
It can be as “unofficial” as the Brexit referendum, ie advisory with the relevant question re asking the Scottish gvt to seek independence from Westminster. Not many voters boycotted Brexit.
That’s true. But many leading unionists will encourage people to boycott this one if it isn’t sanctioned by Westminster. They will argue that it’s not legal. The upshot is it may go to court and we might get clarity for futures ones.
A boycott by unionists would play nicely into Nicola’s hand. Just as the millions who did not vote for Brexit don’t get counted, you cannot count those who would boycott IndyRef2.
Hopefully that would be every last Brexiters 🙂
Never has the governance of the uk been in the hands of such incompetents, conserned more with personal or corporate gain, The SNP will look at every avenue open to them to make life as difficult and awkward for them, to the delight of the EU.