Brexit Bad Deal or No Deal?
The Tory manifesto reminds us that, when it comes to leaving the EU, they would rather have no deal than a Brexit bad deal.
Its almost like they are slipping that in there so that when things do go wrong they can say, well we did warn you about this in the manifesto you gave us a massive mandate to carry out.
So, looking at the manifesto, what are the chances of there being a good deal?
Well in the manifesto, the Tories promise there will be an end to free movement from the EU.
This doesn’t bode well for a good deal because in the EU Parliament’s negotiating guidelines they state that the UK can’t cherry pick EU freedoms. This has been repeated by the likes of Donald Tusk and Angela Merkel.
Which is perhaps why the Tories in their manifesto have ruled out being in the EU Single Market and instead want a separate free trade deal.
However, this is an issue because they also state that they want to agree future terms with the EU at the same time as they agree the terms of withdrawal.
However, the EU Parliament and many EU leaders have said this isn’t happening. They won’t discuss a trade deal until after the Brexit process has been completed although they would discuss a transitional deal if the UK sorts out issues like EU citizen rights and pays its bills.
The EU parliament negotiating guide says that the parliament:
So, if both sides stick to these self imposed rules there are really only two scenarios that can play out.
The best case scenario is that there will be no trade deal arranged during the article 50 process. The best we can hope for is a transitional deal keeping us within EU institutions while a new trade deal is arranged. The EU said they would offer a transitional deal of up to three years.
The other scenario is that the talks break down and we get no Brexit deal. Given how far apart each side seems in expectation the No deal option isn’t that unrealistic.
Especially when you consider how badly the best-case transitional deal will go down with the Brexiteers that are driving Tory party policy. They want out asap.
Which is probably why in one her latest speeches Theresa May was prepping us for failure.
Make no mistake, the central challenge we face is negotiating the best deal for Britain in Europe. If we fail, the consequences for Britain and for the economic security of ordinary working people will be dire. If we succeed, the opportunities ahead of us are great.
Let us know what you think about the chances of a good Brexit deal below.
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